Monday, June 23, 2008

MarketClub's Free Trial Offer Is Almost Over

MarketClub’s Free Trial offer will soon expire…

This is a once a year chance to get a peak at our Trade Triangle technology to see if MarketClub is right for you. Use this link and within minutes you start exploring our service:

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Please share your feedback with me. I would love to hear how you enjoyed your trial and what we can do to have you as an official member of MarketClub.

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INO.com & MarketClub.com

lindsay@ino.com

Traders Toolbox: Lesson 2 Discipline

Discipline Of all the “tools” available to the trader, none is more important than his or her own mind! Lack of mental discipline has to be the primary cause of losses in the marketplace. Why else would traders with years of experience and reliable systems fail to be consistent winners? Show a 6-year-old child a chart and he will tell you if a market is going up or down by simple observation. Yet, 80% or 90% of all traders end up as losers. The market doesn’t beat you; you beat yourself!You are your own worst enemy!

Challenges of a trader’s mental discipline exist in many areas of the marketplace and appear in many different forms. Virtually every trader who has spent any amount of time in the commodity business has experienced one or more of the following upsets to his mentality: My broker says … ; the report said. .. ; the weather will be … ; but this time is different; ABC is buying; XYZ is selling; it’s too high to buy; it’s too low to sell; if I get out today the market will turn tomorrow; I saw it coming but my broker (wife, husband, brother, friend, etc.) talked me out of it; and my favorite “They say…”

The trader lacking confidence in his own abilities will seek advice from anyone who will agree with his position. In doing so, he often finds the group of experts called “they” quoted. Invariably, he will stay with a bad position or prematurely abandon or exit a good position because “they” said so and so. Interestingly, in all my years in the business, I have never been able to locate a government agency or an advisory service under the title of “THEY.” Do not take the advice of anyone unless you are sure they know more than you do.

Contrary opinion or bullish consensus is a measure of mental attitude. When 80% to 90% of traders are bullish, a market may be termed overbought. How does a market become overbought? High bullish consensus readings develop when traders are “sold” on the idea a mar- is going higher. The idea is promoted by market action and by media attention. A prime example was the media blitz during late 1987 which said foreign currencies would never experience another down day. Finally, everyone was convinced the sky was the limit and, as usual, when everyone knew what the market was going to do, they were wrong. When a person is bombarded by a multitude of news re- ports,it is extremely difficult to examine a market from an unemotional and objective point of view.

However, to be successful, you have to develop such a mental discipline. mental discipline is necessary in any competition you enter. The competition the trader faces is the battle he has with himself. He must be able to avoid the emotional forces constantly tugging at his mind. He must defend against im- pulsive greed when a market is “leaving” without him and against fear when a market is moving against his position. He has to maintain the confidence that his analysis is correct and enter orders based on this confidence even when it is “obvious” the analysis can’t be correct. When he suffers a loss, the trader must fight the “I have to get it back” syndrome. When he succumbs to this malady, he begins to trade equity instead of the marketplace and he is doomed to throw good money after bad.

My observation has been the most dangerous period a trader can face is when he first becomes a winner. I have had the good fortune to catch some significant moves in the past and have received a number of calls from people who were overjoyed with their positions; in some instances, the callers were nearly euphoric (probably long hogs or bellies).

All too often I have watched new winners gain the feeling of overconfidence and indestructibility. Greed sets in and one- or two-contract traders become five- and ten-contract traders. They hit on another trade or two and the ego goes limit up; now they can do no wrong. Suddenly, they are one of the “big swingers”; then disaster strikes. The hot streak turns cold and the equity leaves faster than it came. Their emotions leave an island top and they plunge into mental despair. They become another statistic marked to the loser category.

Where do the new winners go wrong? In general, they have not learned the lessons of past losses and do not have the discipline to continue the trading strategy which finally brought them into the winner category. What is different about the consistent winners? First of all, most of the consistent winners were losers at one time. They learned from their losses. They went on to study which tools work and then implemented those tools.

But most importantly, they have undergone a self examination to determine their mental flaws and how to correct them. Like a championship boxer, they realize they can win the first 14 rounds of a fight, but if they let their guard down and relax, they can still lose by a knockout in the final round. It takes work to become a winner and even more work to stay a winner.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Back Testing for Better Trading Results

In today’s guest blog post I asked Ingela Troha to talk about something that has plagued me, and millions of traders each and every year…it’s back testing! Please read the full article, and put the info to good use!

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Back Testing can be a dirty word for traders who are too impatient to test their trading plan. Just the thought of it feels like an inconvenience, and a delay of getting into the live markets. Also many are confused about what the process involves, or completely unaware of how valuable it is to the bottom line of their results.

The benefits of back testing are extensive; years of experience can be gained over a shorter time frame (sometimes within hours) which further develops the traders intuition as the get to know their trading plan intimately; there is also the advantage of using your trading system through various market conditions and not just the current market type; plus testing new indicators and tweaking old ones; or creating a trading plan tailored to your own personal style.

The back testing process involves taking what criteria you have within your trading plan and applying it over at least 4 years of data – pick a period including all movements; bull, bear and sideways conditions. Your trading criteria must be well defined and not open to subjectivity – if it is get rid of it and find a new indictor. Trading rules should be very clear, for example: “Enter 1 daily close above the XX Day Simple Moving Average, with a Stop Loss 25 points away…” and so on. Trading criteria must be so precise that if you were to give the information to 10 different people they would come back with the same results. If there is too much room for interpretation within your rules, you will find it hard to repeat your successes
and avoid losing trades.

Once you have applied your trading criteria over a historical period, carefully noting each trade, you will be able to reflect on each position you took and identify a number of things; you may be able to minimize the risk of each trade by moving your stop loss closer or minimize the probability of being unnecessarily stopped out by having it even further away. For example, if over the 4 year period you made a total of 100 trades where 60 were winning and 40 were losing, you could analyze all the losing trades and see if any of those could have been eliminated or minimized. You could bring in an extra rule or indicator that would have avoided the placement of those losing trades, (however, remember that a new indicator could also have subsequently not allowed you to enter some of the most profitable trades so these need to be tested for viability).

The scenarios that you can back test are endless, and the process may at the time feel quite daunting or monotonous but it is actually deepening your feel for the market by training your eye to look for market movements and patterns that repeat…setting you up as an agile trader to effectively stalk the live markets.

Back testing of course cannot replicate the emotions you will feel that fuel the live markets, but it will add to your profit margin in more ways than one. Happy back testing…

Ingela Troha

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Ingela Troha is a professional trader with over 14 years experience
within the financial services industry – www.unearthedfinancial.com.au

Trading Successfully in a downward trending market

Today our guest blog posting will cover something that’s been on our minds for the past few months…a Bear market! I’m often asked, “Brad what can I do?” There isn’t enough time in the day to help someone who asks me questions like that to be honest. If you don’t have a place to start, or a strategy in place you’re already behind and destine for failure. So read the article below from WallStreetSurvivor and set up your plan.

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Making money in a down market may seem impossible, but there are proven strategies that allow you to profit and seize opportunities that are available in almost any Down, or Bear, market.

When there is turbulence in the stock market, and there appears to be widespread pessimism about stocks, should you simply throw in the towel, sell all your holdings and wait for the market to turn bullish again? The answer is NO! The key is to turn these bumps into plateaus of opportunities. There are several proven strategies to turn market losses into your gains.

Here are three:

* Shorting Stocks
* Buying Bear Market ETF’s
* Buying Defensive Stocks

Shorting Stocks

So… Shorting is a way to make a profit from a stock falling in price when the market is bearish.
In ’short’, it’s a bet that a certain stock will fall.

If a stock looks like it will start losing value, then you can bet against it and make money as its price drops. When you short, you are actually borrowing the shares from your broker with the intention of selling them in the future. So basically, it’s a loan of the shares. But the price you sell them at is all profit.

Let’s look at an example. If stock ABC is trading at $30 and you expect it to go down, you would ’short’ sell it. This means if your broker has loaned you money to buy ABC at $30/share and it falls to $25/share, you make a profit $5/share. That is, you sold the stock for $30/share, and you only paid $25/share for it, even though you sold it before you paid for it. Shorting stocks allows you to make money on a stock when it falls in value.

Let’s dive into a few more facts about shorting and risks associated with shorting. To start with, borrowing shares means margin and while you short-sold a stock, if the company announces a dividend, you would have to reimburse the owner for the dividend. Meanwhile, your downside risk is equivalent to how high the stock may rise after you short-sold which is potentially unlimited downside risk.

Another way to look at a bear market if you’re not a big fan of shorting is…

Bear Market ETFs

An alternative to shorting stocks or indexes is to buy Bear Market Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Bear Market ETFs are designed in a way that when major indexes go down, these ETFs gain value that matches the drop in the index. Moreover, a type of ETF called Ultra Short ETFs allow you to multiply your gains (or losses) by investing in leveraged ETFs. What that means is for a 2:1 leveraged Ultra Short ETF, if the underlying index goes down by 4%, your ETF would go up by 8%. For example, the Ultra Short ETF - Short Ultra Financials (AMEX: SKF) has a 2:1 leveraged relation with the underlying Dow Jones U.S. Financials index (INDEX: DJUSFN). Beginning in November 2007, if you would have bought SKF, with a 10% loss in the index value; you would have gained 20%. Not bad, huh?

In summary, with Bear Market ETFs, you could still reap the benefits of shorting in a down market, without worrying about margin or the unlimited risk associated with shorting a stock. Additionally, Ultra Short ETFs provide an interesting alternative to multiply your gains or to hedge a downturn by investing in leveraged securities.

More Bear Market ETFs:

* UltraShort Consumer Goods (AMEX: SZK)
* UltraShort Health Care (AMEX: RXD)
* UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX: DUG)
* UltraShort Real Estate (AMEX: SRS)
* UltraShort Semiconductors (AMEX: SSG)
* UltraShort Utilities (AMEX: SDP)

Bear Market Index ETF’s:

* UltraShort Nasdaq (AMEX: QID) is designed to profit when the Nasdaq index of technology stocks goes down.
* UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (AMEX: SDS) is designed to profit when the S&P 500 index goes down.
* UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (AMEX: DXD) is designed to profit when the Dow Jones Industrial Index goes down.

Defensive Stock Picks

Seema Garg, Program Manager at Wall Street Survivor

Looking for more ways to profit in a Down market? Here are six industries to BUY in a Bear market that could make you money while others may be selling:

Wall Street Survivor

http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Learn/DefensiveStockPicks.aspx

Monday, June 16, 2008

Father's Day Gift - Offer Expires in 2 Weeks

I wanted to wish a happy father’s day to all the dads that read our blog. It’s not often that we get a whole day of credit for how much we do on the other 364 days of year.

We cut the grass, balance the checkbook, kill the spiders, move the couch, the list is endless.

I wanted to give you a special something as a thank you to all the dads and fathers out there who continue to do the things that are often not recognized.

We’d like to offer you a “2 Week Free Trial” to MarketClub. There is no billing information required, just enter your information and start browsing around the MarketClub site.

Click Here to start your 2 week trial

This offer only comes ONCE A YEAR…kinda like Father’s Day. The trial gives you access to ALL the tools that MarketClub has to offer. This promotion will be offered to the public tomorrow, but we wanted to extend this free trial to you on this special day.
So take the trial by using the link below:

2 Week Free MarketClub Trial

Have a happy father’s day and enjoy gift,

Brad Stafford & The MarketClub Team

These 3 markets will change everything

Every once in a while there comes a time in the market when you get to see some amazing trading opportunities.

I believe this could be one of those times.

In this special private video I analyze in detail the upcoming major moves in three major markets. This just maybe the most important video I have ever made on these three markets and I want you to see it.

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

What’s the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do?

Today I’ve decided that we need to show our support to our huge Aussie following by giving Dean Whittingham, a native Aussie and trading mentor, the ability to teach us a thing or two about what he’s learned while trading in Australia. He’s been a mentor, trader, teacher, and technical analyist for years and today he’ll be blogging about the hardest thing a trader will have to do.

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Visit forums, join memberships, purchase tuition with member areas for support, read books, talk to fellow traders etc and you can be guaranteed you will come across many who will be struggling with a whole host of reasons why. Some will even appear as experts but beneath the surface are struggling with some aspect of their own trading system or style. But do you know what the hardest thing any trader will have to do is?

1. Learn the jargon – no way, this is easy and it just takes time.

2. Find a profitable trading system – there are hundreds of thousands of them, in fact many are just given away for free nowadays.

3. Back test and paper trade – c’mon, I know many people don’t like hard work but you’re way off here.

4. Learning to read charts – kids like reading charts as they look at the green thing and they say, “Hey that’s going up”, or if they see a red thing they say “that’s going down”.

5. Setting goals – important because if you don’t have a goal, you’re floating aimlessly; but not the hardest.

6. Thinking successfully – no matter who you are or where you are there is always something you are good at. If this is so you already know how to be successful.

7. Being true to yourself – knowing who you are is indeed a quality that sets one apart from the rest and is therefore one of the hardest things a trader will ever have to learn, but not the hardest.

8. Cut losses short – it is hard to do this for many but it is definitely not the hardest.

9. Logging trades – as we are lazy this is done by a very few, but this does not make it the hardest, not by a long shot.

10. Keep emotions at bay – trading without emotions is very hard, but as we are humans the proper definition is more like managing emotions; but either way it is not the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do.

11. Remain independent – listening to other’s advice whether it is a newsletter, internet forum, or just your buddy next door is very easy to do as we like to follow other people by nature so to do the opposite is hard, but not the hardest.

12. Sticking to the rules of a plan or system – this is indeed hard but not the hardest. Many people trade with only rules for analyzing or entering, but most never have a complete set of rules anyway, but even those that do, it is not quite the hardest and you’re about to find out why.

13. Letting profits run – BINGO!

The hardest thing a trader will ever have to do is to let profits run. It doesn’t matter whether a trader uses trailing stops or profit targets, the ability to let a trade run its full course is the hardest thing a trader will have to consistently do.

Why is this so difficult?

For one, most place more emphasis on seeking opportunities and rules for entering than on anything else to do with running a trading business. And this is exactly how the whole “trading” thing is marketed. Very few traders have rules for exiting.

But even those that do have rules for exiting, only a small minority will stick to them, and this is because we as traders can not get past thinking about the money. Money rules us as traders and probably rules us in our lives too.

If you go back over all the points above I can tell you that all of them contribute in some way to the most difficult thing a trader will do; hold on to winning trades.

For example, if you think you’re a successful trader then why would you cut your profits short?

Because if you thought you were a success you would know yourself and where you need emotional management, you would learn any jargon and how to analyze, you would have a goal, and you would have a plan to go with it, which means you would have a system with rules for analyzing, entering and exiting, and you would have a fair idea how this system performs, which means you would have back-tested or paper traded it, and you’d cut losses short and you’d log all trades, you’d remain independent, and finally you’d stick to all the rules.

What a trader will face is the situation where they cut a profit short and take a look at what they made for that trade; this will send out a good feeling throughout their body. What will compound this feeling is if they look a little later on to see their decision was justified because the trade would have resulted in a loss if they’d not closed it out earlier.

The problem is this good feeling we are experiencing is encouraging bad behaviour whether it’s breaking rules, trading without a plan or whatever. To continue on this path will lead you to having to find more winning trades because the trades you do get wrong will cost you more than what you make from the profitable ones.

Now here comes the litmus test: If you cut a profit short only to see it would have been a lot more profitable had you held on longer or used your exit rules then this should hurt – I mean really hurt, but not because of the lost opportunity but because you see it as a failure on your part. If it doesn’t then success means very little to you.

All traders will go through the process of seeing themselves in a winning trade only to see it end up as a loss. This is inevitable. Apart from having someone look over your shoulder to prevent you breaking rules or cutting profits short, the only person who can do this is you! If you find yourself cutting profits short then look for your weakest links in your trading business. I have given you many here to ponder.

Dean Whittingham

http://www.atradersuniverse.com - Stock, futures and forex trading system development for all traders.
If you’d like to learn more from Dean I highly suggest his latest report on The Subtle Trap of Trading