Monday, June 23, 2008

MarketClub's Free Trial Offer Is Almost Over

MarketClub’s Free Trial offer will soon expire…

This is a once a year chance to get a peak at our Trade Triangle technology to see if MarketClub is right for you. Use this link and within minutes you start exploring our service:

Start Free Trial of MarketClub

Please share your feedback with me. I would love to hear how you enjoyed your trial and what we can do to have you as an official member of MarketClub.

Best,

Lindsay Thompson
Director of New Business Development
INO.com & MarketClub.com

lindsay@ino.com

Traders Toolbox: Lesson 2 Discipline

Discipline Of all the “tools” available to the trader, none is more important than his or her own mind! Lack of mental discipline has to be the primary cause of losses in the marketplace. Why else would traders with years of experience and reliable systems fail to be consistent winners? Show a 6-year-old child a chart and he will tell you if a market is going up or down by simple observation. Yet, 80% or 90% of all traders end up as losers. The market doesn’t beat you; you beat yourself!You are your own worst enemy!

Challenges of a trader’s mental discipline exist in many areas of the marketplace and appear in many different forms. Virtually every trader who has spent any amount of time in the commodity business has experienced one or more of the following upsets to his mentality: My broker says … ; the report said. .. ; the weather will be … ; but this time is different; ABC is buying; XYZ is selling; it’s too high to buy; it’s too low to sell; if I get out today the market will turn tomorrow; I saw it coming but my broker (wife, husband, brother, friend, etc.) talked me out of it; and my favorite “They say…”

The trader lacking confidence in his own abilities will seek advice from anyone who will agree with his position. In doing so, he often finds the group of experts called “they” quoted. Invariably, he will stay with a bad position or prematurely abandon or exit a good position because “they” said so and so. Interestingly, in all my years in the business, I have never been able to locate a government agency or an advisory service under the title of “THEY.” Do not take the advice of anyone unless you are sure they know more than you do.

Contrary opinion or bullish consensus is a measure of mental attitude. When 80% to 90% of traders are bullish, a market may be termed overbought. How does a market become overbought? High bullish consensus readings develop when traders are “sold” on the idea a mar- is going higher. The idea is promoted by market action and by media attention. A prime example was the media blitz during late 1987 which said foreign currencies would never experience another down day. Finally, everyone was convinced the sky was the limit and, as usual, when everyone knew what the market was going to do, they were wrong. When a person is bombarded by a multitude of news re- ports,it is extremely difficult to examine a market from an unemotional and objective point of view.

However, to be successful, you have to develop such a mental discipline. mental discipline is necessary in any competition you enter. The competition the trader faces is the battle he has with himself. He must be able to avoid the emotional forces constantly tugging at his mind. He must defend against im- pulsive greed when a market is “leaving” without him and against fear when a market is moving against his position. He has to maintain the confidence that his analysis is correct and enter orders based on this confidence even when it is “obvious” the analysis can’t be correct. When he suffers a loss, the trader must fight the “I have to get it back” syndrome. When he succumbs to this malady, he begins to trade equity instead of the marketplace and he is doomed to throw good money after bad.

My observation has been the most dangerous period a trader can face is when he first becomes a winner. I have had the good fortune to catch some significant moves in the past and have received a number of calls from people who were overjoyed with their positions; in some instances, the callers were nearly euphoric (probably long hogs or bellies).

All too often I have watched new winners gain the feeling of overconfidence and indestructibility. Greed sets in and one- or two-contract traders become five- and ten-contract traders. They hit on another trade or two and the ego goes limit up; now they can do no wrong. Suddenly, they are one of the “big swingers”; then disaster strikes. The hot streak turns cold and the equity leaves faster than it came. Their emotions leave an island top and they plunge into mental despair. They become another statistic marked to the loser category.

Where do the new winners go wrong? In general, they have not learned the lessons of past losses and do not have the discipline to continue the trading strategy which finally brought them into the winner category. What is different about the consistent winners? First of all, most of the consistent winners were losers at one time. They learned from their losses. They went on to study which tools work and then implemented those tools.

But most importantly, they have undergone a self examination to determine their mental flaws and how to correct them. Like a championship boxer, they realize they can win the first 14 rounds of a fight, but if they let their guard down and relax, they can still lose by a knockout in the final round. It takes work to become a winner and even more work to stay a winner.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Back Testing for Better Trading Results

In today’s guest blog post I asked Ingela Troha to talk about something that has plagued me, and millions of traders each and every year…it’s back testing! Please read the full article, and put the info to good use!

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Back Testing can be a dirty word for traders who are too impatient to test their trading plan. Just the thought of it feels like an inconvenience, and a delay of getting into the live markets. Also many are confused about what the process involves, or completely unaware of how valuable it is to the bottom line of their results.

The benefits of back testing are extensive; years of experience can be gained over a shorter time frame (sometimes within hours) which further develops the traders intuition as the get to know their trading plan intimately; there is also the advantage of using your trading system through various market conditions and not just the current market type; plus testing new indicators and tweaking old ones; or creating a trading plan tailored to your own personal style.

The back testing process involves taking what criteria you have within your trading plan and applying it over at least 4 years of data – pick a period including all movements; bull, bear and sideways conditions. Your trading criteria must be well defined and not open to subjectivity – if it is get rid of it and find a new indictor. Trading rules should be very clear, for example: “Enter 1 daily close above the XX Day Simple Moving Average, with a Stop Loss 25 points away…” and so on. Trading criteria must be so precise that if you were to give the information to 10 different people they would come back with the same results. If there is too much room for interpretation within your rules, you will find it hard to repeat your successes
and avoid losing trades.

Once you have applied your trading criteria over a historical period, carefully noting each trade, you will be able to reflect on each position you took and identify a number of things; you may be able to minimize the risk of each trade by moving your stop loss closer or minimize the probability of being unnecessarily stopped out by having it even further away. For example, if over the 4 year period you made a total of 100 trades where 60 were winning and 40 were losing, you could analyze all the losing trades and see if any of those could have been eliminated or minimized. You could bring in an extra rule or indicator that would have avoided the placement of those losing trades, (however, remember that a new indicator could also have subsequently not allowed you to enter some of the most profitable trades so these need to be tested for viability).

The scenarios that you can back test are endless, and the process may at the time feel quite daunting or monotonous but it is actually deepening your feel for the market by training your eye to look for market movements and patterns that repeat…setting you up as an agile trader to effectively stalk the live markets.

Back testing of course cannot replicate the emotions you will feel that fuel the live markets, but it will add to your profit margin in more ways than one. Happy back testing…

Ingela Troha

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Ingela Troha is a professional trader with over 14 years experience
within the financial services industry – www.unearthedfinancial.com.au

Trading Successfully in a downward trending market

Today our guest blog posting will cover something that’s been on our minds for the past few months…a Bear market! I’m often asked, “Brad what can I do?” There isn’t enough time in the day to help someone who asks me questions like that to be honest. If you don’t have a place to start, or a strategy in place you’re already behind and destine for failure. So read the article below from WallStreetSurvivor and set up your plan.

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Making money in a down market may seem impossible, but there are proven strategies that allow you to profit and seize opportunities that are available in almost any Down, or Bear, market.

When there is turbulence in the stock market, and there appears to be widespread pessimism about stocks, should you simply throw in the towel, sell all your holdings and wait for the market to turn bullish again? The answer is NO! The key is to turn these bumps into plateaus of opportunities. There are several proven strategies to turn market losses into your gains.

Here are three:

* Shorting Stocks
* Buying Bear Market ETF’s
* Buying Defensive Stocks

Shorting Stocks

So… Shorting is a way to make a profit from a stock falling in price when the market is bearish.
In ’short’, it’s a bet that a certain stock will fall.

If a stock looks like it will start losing value, then you can bet against it and make money as its price drops. When you short, you are actually borrowing the shares from your broker with the intention of selling them in the future. So basically, it’s a loan of the shares. But the price you sell them at is all profit.

Let’s look at an example. If stock ABC is trading at $30 and you expect it to go down, you would ’short’ sell it. This means if your broker has loaned you money to buy ABC at $30/share and it falls to $25/share, you make a profit $5/share. That is, you sold the stock for $30/share, and you only paid $25/share for it, even though you sold it before you paid for it. Shorting stocks allows you to make money on a stock when it falls in value.

Let’s dive into a few more facts about shorting and risks associated with shorting. To start with, borrowing shares means margin and while you short-sold a stock, if the company announces a dividend, you would have to reimburse the owner for the dividend. Meanwhile, your downside risk is equivalent to how high the stock may rise after you short-sold which is potentially unlimited downside risk.

Another way to look at a bear market if you’re not a big fan of shorting is…

Bear Market ETFs

An alternative to shorting stocks or indexes is to buy Bear Market Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Bear Market ETFs are designed in a way that when major indexes go down, these ETFs gain value that matches the drop in the index. Moreover, a type of ETF called Ultra Short ETFs allow you to multiply your gains (or losses) by investing in leveraged ETFs. What that means is for a 2:1 leveraged Ultra Short ETF, if the underlying index goes down by 4%, your ETF would go up by 8%. For example, the Ultra Short ETF - Short Ultra Financials (AMEX: SKF) has a 2:1 leveraged relation with the underlying Dow Jones U.S. Financials index (INDEX: DJUSFN). Beginning in November 2007, if you would have bought SKF, with a 10% loss in the index value; you would have gained 20%. Not bad, huh?

In summary, with Bear Market ETFs, you could still reap the benefits of shorting in a down market, without worrying about margin or the unlimited risk associated with shorting a stock. Additionally, Ultra Short ETFs provide an interesting alternative to multiply your gains or to hedge a downturn by investing in leveraged securities.

More Bear Market ETFs:

* UltraShort Consumer Goods (AMEX: SZK)
* UltraShort Health Care (AMEX: RXD)
* UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX: DUG)
* UltraShort Real Estate (AMEX: SRS)
* UltraShort Semiconductors (AMEX: SSG)
* UltraShort Utilities (AMEX: SDP)

Bear Market Index ETF’s:

* UltraShort Nasdaq (AMEX: QID) is designed to profit when the Nasdaq index of technology stocks goes down.
* UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (AMEX: SDS) is designed to profit when the S&P 500 index goes down.
* UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (AMEX: DXD) is designed to profit when the Dow Jones Industrial Index goes down.

Defensive Stock Picks

Seema Garg, Program Manager at Wall Street Survivor

Looking for more ways to profit in a Down market? Here are six industries to BUY in a Bear market that could make you money while others may be selling:

Wall Street Survivor

http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Learn/DefensiveStockPicks.aspx

Monday, June 16, 2008

Father's Day Gift - Offer Expires in 2 Weeks

I wanted to wish a happy father’s day to all the dads that read our blog. It’s not often that we get a whole day of credit for how much we do on the other 364 days of year.

We cut the grass, balance the checkbook, kill the spiders, move the couch, the list is endless.

I wanted to give you a special something as a thank you to all the dads and fathers out there who continue to do the things that are often not recognized.

We’d like to offer you a “2 Week Free Trial” to MarketClub. There is no billing information required, just enter your information and start browsing around the MarketClub site.

Click Here to start your 2 week trial

This offer only comes ONCE A YEAR…kinda like Father’s Day. The trial gives you access to ALL the tools that MarketClub has to offer. This promotion will be offered to the public tomorrow, but we wanted to extend this free trial to you on this special day.
So take the trial by using the link below:

2 Week Free MarketClub Trial

Have a happy father’s day and enjoy gift,

Brad Stafford & The MarketClub Team

These 3 markets will change everything

Every once in a while there comes a time in the market when you get to see some amazing trading opportunities.

I believe this could be one of those times.

In this special private video I analyze in detail the upcoming major moves in three major markets. This just maybe the most important video I have ever made on these three markets and I want you to see it.

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

What’s the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do?

Today I’ve decided that we need to show our support to our huge Aussie following by giving Dean Whittingham, a native Aussie and trading mentor, the ability to teach us a thing or two about what he’s learned while trading in Australia. He’s been a mentor, trader, teacher, and technical analyist for years and today he’ll be blogging about the hardest thing a trader will have to do.

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Visit forums, join memberships, purchase tuition with member areas for support, read books, talk to fellow traders etc and you can be guaranteed you will come across many who will be struggling with a whole host of reasons why. Some will even appear as experts but beneath the surface are struggling with some aspect of their own trading system or style. But do you know what the hardest thing any trader will have to do is?

1. Learn the jargon – no way, this is easy and it just takes time.

2. Find a profitable trading system – there are hundreds of thousands of them, in fact many are just given away for free nowadays.

3. Back test and paper trade – c’mon, I know many people don’t like hard work but you’re way off here.

4. Learning to read charts – kids like reading charts as they look at the green thing and they say, “Hey that’s going up”, or if they see a red thing they say “that’s going down”.

5. Setting goals – important because if you don’t have a goal, you’re floating aimlessly; but not the hardest.

6. Thinking successfully – no matter who you are or where you are there is always something you are good at. If this is so you already know how to be successful.

7. Being true to yourself – knowing who you are is indeed a quality that sets one apart from the rest and is therefore one of the hardest things a trader will ever have to learn, but not the hardest.

8. Cut losses short – it is hard to do this for many but it is definitely not the hardest.

9. Logging trades – as we are lazy this is done by a very few, but this does not make it the hardest, not by a long shot.

10. Keep emotions at bay – trading without emotions is very hard, but as we are humans the proper definition is more like managing emotions; but either way it is not the hardest thing a trader will ever have to do.

11. Remain independent – listening to other’s advice whether it is a newsletter, internet forum, or just your buddy next door is very easy to do as we like to follow other people by nature so to do the opposite is hard, but not the hardest.

12. Sticking to the rules of a plan or system – this is indeed hard but not the hardest. Many people trade with only rules for analyzing or entering, but most never have a complete set of rules anyway, but even those that do, it is not quite the hardest and you’re about to find out why.

13. Letting profits run – BINGO!

The hardest thing a trader will ever have to do is to let profits run. It doesn’t matter whether a trader uses trailing stops or profit targets, the ability to let a trade run its full course is the hardest thing a trader will have to consistently do.

Why is this so difficult?

For one, most place more emphasis on seeking opportunities and rules for entering than on anything else to do with running a trading business. And this is exactly how the whole “trading” thing is marketed. Very few traders have rules for exiting.

But even those that do have rules for exiting, only a small minority will stick to them, and this is because we as traders can not get past thinking about the money. Money rules us as traders and probably rules us in our lives too.

If you go back over all the points above I can tell you that all of them contribute in some way to the most difficult thing a trader will do; hold on to winning trades.

For example, if you think you’re a successful trader then why would you cut your profits short?

Because if you thought you were a success you would know yourself and where you need emotional management, you would learn any jargon and how to analyze, you would have a goal, and you would have a plan to go with it, which means you would have a system with rules for analyzing, entering and exiting, and you would have a fair idea how this system performs, which means you would have back-tested or paper traded it, and you’d cut losses short and you’d log all trades, you’d remain independent, and finally you’d stick to all the rules.

What a trader will face is the situation where they cut a profit short and take a look at what they made for that trade; this will send out a good feeling throughout their body. What will compound this feeling is if they look a little later on to see their decision was justified because the trade would have resulted in a loss if they’d not closed it out earlier.

The problem is this good feeling we are experiencing is encouraging bad behaviour whether it’s breaking rules, trading without a plan or whatever. To continue on this path will lead you to having to find more winning trades because the trades you do get wrong will cost you more than what you make from the profitable ones.

Now here comes the litmus test: If you cut a profit short only to see it would have been a lot more profitable had you held on longer or used your exit rules then this should hurt – I mean really hurt, but not because of the lost opportunity but because you see it as a failure on your part. If it doesn’t then success means very little to you.

All traders will go through the process of seeing themselves in a winning trade only to see it end up as a loss. This is inevitable. Apart from having someone look over your shoulder to prevent you breaking rules or cutting profits short, the only person who can do this is you! If you find yourself cutting profits short then look for your weakest links in your trading business. I have given you many here to ponder.

Dean Whittingham

http://www.atradersuniverse.com - Stock, futures and forex trading system development for all traders.
If you’d like to learn more from Dean I highly suggest his latest report on The Subtle Trap of Trading

New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

FR: Adam Hewison, President INO.com

RE: New educational video on Apple’s stock price.

Dave Maher my partner, just uploaded a new educational video on Apple’s stock price that I made after the close on Monday. I think you’ll find it interesting and very educational given Apple’s big announcement yesterday on the new iPhone.

Click to see video

Click on the chart to watch my new 3 minute educational trading video on Apple,

Cheers,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

P.S. Here’s all the details of the Apple announcement courtesy of AP

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By JORDAN ROBERTSON
AP Technology Writer

(AP:SAN FRANCISCO) The iPhone will soon be $200 cheaper _ and come with satellite navigation, faster Internet access and other new features _ but higher monthly service charges are likely to erase most of the savings.

Apple Inc. revealed Monday that it has scrapped its pricing plan for the iPhone as it unveiled a model that works over faster wireless networks, addressing key criticisms about the device that have hurt the company’s foray into the cell phone industry.

An 8-gigabyte version with the new features will go for $199 when it goes on sale July 11, and a 16 gigabyte model will cost $299, the Cupertino-based company said.

Current iPhone owners who buy a new model and sign up for a new AT&T contract won’t have to pay any penalties to get out of their current contract, AT&T spokesman Michael Coe said. And anyone who bought an iPhone in an AT&T store after May 26 can return it before Aug. 1 for full credit against a new one _ less a 10 percent restocking fee.

Apple plans to make up the difference in sales revenue with volume _ and with subsidies wireless carriers will now pay for the right to carry the gadget.

In changing the pricing arrangements, Apple is pulling out of revenue-sharing arrangements with some wireless carriers, a move that frees the carriers to charge higher prices for the service.

Apple shares fell $4.03, or 2.2 percent, to close Monday at $181.61 on the news, a sign that some investors were hoping for more and others were taking their profits after a four-month run-up in Apple’s stock price, which leaped from $120 in March.

The new iPhones, initially to be introduced in 22 countries, are designed to work over so-called 3G, or third-generation, wireless networks and have global-positioning technology built in.

They will also support Microsoft Corp.’s Exchange software, an addition that puts the iPhone in more direct competition with Research in Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry and Palm Inc.’s Treo smart phones and is intended to appeal to the business market.

Analysts have said Apple needed to slash the iPhone’s price and make it usable on faster networks to hit the company’s target of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. Apple said the 3G iPhones download data twice as fast as the older ones.

Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said Apple has sold 6 million iPhones since the first model launched nearly a year ago and 700,000 since March. That points to a steady slowdown in sales starting in the fourth quarter last year as customers waited for a 3G version.

Jobs showed off the new models of the iPhone and about a dozen new applications for the device at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco.

New applications range from video games that use the iPhone’s motion-sensing technology to guide characters to study tools for medical students and a program that allows users to find nearby cell-phone-carrying friends on a map.

One program brings real-time video highlights and game stats from MLB.com; another creates an Associated Press news feed based on the user’s location and lets users submit news tips to the AP.

Apple also announced a new Web-based service called “MobileMe,” which the company describes as “Exchange _ for the rest of us,” a consumer-friendly way for people to link their iPhones to their home and work computers so updates entered into one device automatically appear in the others.

MobileMe will cost $99 per year and come with 20 gigabytes of online storage.

AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for the iPhone, said service for it will start at $39.99 per month, plus $30 for unlimited data. That works out to a $10 increase from the cheapest plan for the first-generation iPhone; over the course of a two-year contract, that increase wipes out the savings from the price cut Apple announced Monday.

AT&T’s pricing covers only U.S. residents. While iPhone prices will drop outside the U.S. too, it was not clear whether other carriers would raise monthly fees to compensate.

AT&T also warned that it will take an earnings hit due to the pricing because new subsidies it agreed to pay will produce the iPhone price cut _ not a reduction from Apple.

Apple said in a regulatory filing that under most of its new carrier agreements, it will not receive a share of subscribers’ monthly service fees as it has under contracts for the first-generation iPhone.

Jobs said Apple waited to improve the iPhone for use on the faster network because the chips available when the iPhone first came out sapped too much battery life and were too bulky to fit the iPhone’s slim design.

The addition of global-positioning technology improves the iPhone’s accuracy in locating users. Current versions use a combination of cell-phone towers and Wi-Fi locations to help users figure out where they are.

The 1.73 million iPhones Apple sold in the first three month this year gave it a 5.3 percent share of the worldwide smart-phone market, according to research firm Gartner. Apple has been adding overseas markets gradually with carrier deals.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Here’s one of my favorite chart patterns


Head and Shoulders Formations

One of the oldest and most reliable of all chart formations is the Head and Shoulders Formation. This formation takes place usually after a trend has been established and in place for some time. It can in rarer instances take place in a continuation pattern and still be effective. The two formations we are going to look at today are a Head and Shoulders Top (HAST) and a Head and Shoulders Base (HASB). Both of these formations have a high degree of accuracy and usually portend a major change in direction for a market.

A normal Head and Shoulders Top (HAST) or Head and Shoulders Base (HASB) has a right shoulder, a head, a left shoulder, and a neckline. More complicated formations have double heads or double shoulders and, in some rare instances, triple shoulders. Both a Head and Shoulders Top (HAST) and a Head and Shoulders Base (HASB) have a neckline, and a Head and Shoulders formation should only be considered completed when the neckline is broken.

Once the neckline is broken, it is possible that prices can set back and retest the neckline. It is perfectly normal and healthy for a market to do this. Care must be taken that the retest of the neckline does not exceed by too much the original neckline and thereby abort the formation.

As a general rule, if the market sets back through its neckline and violates the left shoulder formation, it should be viewed as invalidating the original buy or sell signal. In order to predict the extent of a move a measurement is taken from the top part of the head to the neckline. The Head and Shoulders Target Zone (HATSZ) is created when you add or subtract this distance from the neckline, depending on whether it’s a Head and Shoulders Top (HAST) or a Head and Shoulders Base (HASB).

See how many chart formations show up in MarketClub. This type of formation occurs in stocks, futures, forex, metals and mutual fund markets.

Every Success,

Adam Hewison

Co-Founder, MarketClub.com


PS - Visit Our Main TradersBlog page at http://club.ino.com/trading/ for more trading education

“Saturday Seminars” - Understanding The Decision Marking Process In Any Market

In this presentation, Peter will describe the important distinction between internal and external market information and how successful floor traders rely primarily on data the market generates internally about itself. Floor traders can readily determine whether or not the markets supports, or “uplifts”, their decisions by evaluating the emotions, sounds, and energy levels generated in the pits. Physical proximity to the pits provides them with a distinct advantage over individual traders, for whom the only internal information available is volume.

Peter will describe the strides that the Chicago Board of Trade and NYMEX are making to provide users with more and better internal data. However, more data does not necessarily improve the decision-making process, causing the downfall of even highly trained and disciplined traders. Rather than overwhelming individual traders with too much information, the new platforms offered by the CBOT and NYMEX combine price, volume, and direction into a single market operating unit, and provide decision filters which, in essence, allow for forward testing trading strategies. Peter will describe the mechanics behind this process and provide examples from a variety of markets.

PDF Workbook


Hear the entire audio seminar at our main TradersBlog page http://tv.ino.com/trading/



Peter Steidlmayer’s lifelong interest in the markets began during his undergraduate days at the University of California at Berkeley, from which he graduated in 1960. He joined the Chicago Board of Trade in 1963 and has been an independent trader ever since. Peter served on the board of directors of the CBOT from 1981 to 1983. While a director, he was responsible for initiating his own revolutionary concepts in data arrangement and trading information—Market Profile and the Liquidity Data Bank©. He is author of four books: Markets and Market Logic, Steidlmayer on Markets, New Market Discoveries, and 141 West Jackson, A Journey Through Trading Discoveries. He is presently working on his fifth book, The Essence of Trading. Each of these books establishes a rational working framework for organizing the underlying structure and movement of the market(s).



For more audio and video seminars please visit INO TV

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

How To Turn A $99 Investment Into A Lifetime Of Trading Success


Dear Trader,

Learning by experience can be costly, especially in the financial markets. Fortunately, there are shortcuts. “I’ve changed from losing money to consistently making a profit,” says Paul, a trader from Illinois. “I’ve learned techniques that really have made a big difference in my trading.” He credits INO TV’s streaming educational videos and audios for his success. INO TV is a division of INO.com, a pioneer in the web-based delivery of financial information since 1995.

Traders of all levels will appreciate INO TV’s online digital library of video and audio seminars, the largest and most comprehensive collection of trader and investor seminars available anywhere today. INO TV’s seminars-currently numbered at 547 with more being added all the time - present time-tested theories, techniques, and strategies from over 150 master traders. INO TV offers traders an easy and convenient way to improve their skills, confidence, and profits.

Traders say online seminars are more convenient, less costly
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Compared to the high price tag of live seminars, INO TV’s annual membership fee of $99.95 (or $49.95 for three months) is a bargain. While many traders find the live atmosphere of seminars enjoyable, others find that the registration fees, travel expenses, and hotel charges are cost prohibitive. Dean, a trader in the UK, is one of the latter. The live seminar he attended, which cost him $7,500, failed to meet his expectations. “I should have avoided going to the actual seminar,” he says. “What I learned through the online videos was more than what they were giving me at the seminars.” Dean says that the knowledge he acquired in a single month of viewing INO TV online would have cost him about $24,000 in seminar fees.

It’s not just the cost that makes INO TV so attractive to traders. It’s also the convenience. Dirk, a financial writer and seminar instructor in the Netherlands who has been an active trader for over a decade, elaborates. “I was invited by my broker to attend a seminar on futures. For me, coming from a small village near Amsterdam, that would be a time consuming and high-priced event,” he explains. “It is far more convenient to watch a video online. Watching them at any convenient time and seeing them again and again brings a trader far more value while being very time efficient.”

Anyone with a computer and a high-speed internet connection can take advantage of INO TV’s digital seminar collection. The on-demand streaming seminars feature some of the world’s top experts, whose ranks include trading systems pioneers, trading contest champions, authors, trading coaches, and real floor traders. Many of the seminars come with free downloadable workbooks. INO TV’s digital library of trading seminars is the most extensive collection available online, and these seminars are not available anywhere else. Members are free to watch and listen to as many seminars as they want, as often as they want, for one low membership fee. A 3-month membership is just $49.95, and an annual membership just $99.95. To enroll click here.

A special note from Adam:
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Even though I caught some lucky breaks early in my financial career and went on to become a successful forex trader, I still look back with 20/20 hindsight and realize that I could have been more successful, sooner, if I had been a more educated trader. That’s why I’m so excited about what we have to offer at INO TV: proven trading techniques - practical tools for consistent success - step by step trading methods that will empower you to build wealth and create the life you want. And all straight from the lips of the masters themselves. If you do nothing else today, visit INO TV and find out if the service is right for you.


Adam Hewison
Co-Creator, INO TV

How To Have Complete Confidence In Your Trading

Traders often get frustrated when they see the market doing the "unexpected."

This occurs because they have a pre-conceived idea of what the market "should do." And when it doesn't behave according to their Wave Count, or their Gann calculations or their Fibonacci cluster or their indicators' clear signals ... well, they just get frustrated.

This comes from a belief that the market has a pattern that is knowable and should be followed consistently.

People much smarter than I have been studying the markets for many, many years. Yet the debate is alive and well as to whether or not the market is simply a "random walk."

The fact the subject has not been settled among the greatest thinkers is significant.

My belief is ... yes, it mostly is chaotic. It is completely unpredictable. It is impossible to forecast.

But, and this is an important "but," there are times ... and it isn't most of the time... but there are times when certain patterns occur that put the PROBABILITIES of a certain action occurring.

Note that this is not predicting or forecasting. The truth is, the market can do ANYTHING AT ANY TIME.

You should never be surprised, confused or frustrated, because that indicates you had some expectation of the future.

Let me clarify ...

You should never be surprised, confused or frustrated about what the MARKET does. You should only be surprised, confused or frustrated about what YOU do. This is because you cannot control the market. The only thing you can control is your own behavior.

Therefore to master trading is not to master the markets, but it is to master yourself. And you will have done this when you only trade when probabilities are clearly on your side, as evidenced from thorough testing that you yourself have conducted to your own satisfaction.

To master yourself means (among other things):

1. Do not pass on trade setups that meet your criteria.
2. Do not trade while tired or under emotional stress.
3. Do not over trade.
4. Master money managment.
5. Keep your stops - maintaining small losses.
6. Let your winners run for big profits.
7. Don't give up on a valid methodology when it goes through a normal drawdown period.

These are just 7 of the most common psychological challenges every trader must wrestle with.

Your success or failure will depend much more on how you handle these challenges than which indicators you use or which time interval you trade.

As someone once said: "The consistency you need is in your mind, not in the market."
____

BIO:

Dr. Barry Burns writes a blog and produces videos for Top Dog Trading

He offers a 5-day free video trading course which can be accessed here:
http://www.topdogtrading.com/enter.html

Saturday, May 31, 2008

“Saturday Seminars” - Five Basic Trading Patterns & Their Applications To The Markets

Linda discusses five choice trading patterns she uses. Based on a logical set of market principles, these five patterns work equally well in equity and commodity markets. Understanding these enduring market setups provides you with a solid foundation for trading technically. They simplify analysis for the beginner and give the aggressive trader added confidence. Linda has used these patterns as the core of her intermediate-term analysis but they work well on any timeframe.

PDF Workbook

Raschke will explore :

* Double Tops/Bottoms
* Divergent Buy/Sell
* Anti Minor
* Sling Buy/Sell
* First Cross

Linda Raschke has been a full-time professional trader for over 20 years. She began her trading career on the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange and later moved to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. Linda was written up in Jack Schwager’s book, “The New Market Wizards” and in “Women of the Street” by Sue Herera. In 1995, she co-authored the best selling book “Street Smarts - High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies.” Linda continues to trade every day.



For more audio and video seminars please visit INO TV

The #1 Account Killer: Emotion

Well, I have to say that emotions always lose out to a solid game plan when it comes to the markets. Here's a recent example; we received a buy signal for gold (XAUUSDO) at $905 basis spot on May 19th. The gold market ran up and reached an intra-day high of $935.30 before it subsequently collapsed. I'm sure many traders held on thinking that the sharp pullback was just a pullback and that gold would soon regain its footing and once again go higher. Why subject yourself to that kind guessing and emotional type trading when there's a better way? Using the MarketClub's non-emotional "Trade Triangle" technology we were able to exit the market with a small profit of $10.25 an ounce and rest on the sidelines as gold collapsed. There's really no room for emotion in the market place. This is one of the greatest downfalls of most traders. You need to go into the market with a solid game plan, this could be in the form of MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" or it could be another form of discipline, but having a solid game plan does give you a reference point to work from. When you are making trading decisions about the market while it is still trading is generally not a good idea. Here's a recent trading recap:

Gold (XAUUSDO): We are out of the gold buy trade from $905 on 5/19 to 5/27 at $915.25 for a profit of $10.25. We are resting on the sidelines based on "Trade Triangle" technology. See video.

Crude Oil (CL.N08): We exited our long July position from $125.63 purchased on 5/15 at 126.90 on 5/28 (original signal $128.69) for a gain of $1.27. We are out of this market and on the sidelines based on our "Trade Triangle" technology. See video.

Whether the "Trade Triangles" turned out to be correct or incorrect, they do provide you with discipline and a reference point that you can hang your hat on. "Trade Triangles" are consistent and not a willy-nilly approach to the market. Using MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" gives you confidence as they represent a defined, measured approach that if followed consistently will make you money in the long run.

Please see our video on eliminated emotion by clicking here: Watch "Emotions Videos"

Every success in the markets and in life,

Adam Hewison

Co-Creator, MarketClub.com

The Four Main Types Of Trades

Today we welcome Corey Rosenbloom from Afraid To Trade, as our Guest Blogger!

Please welcome him and take advantage of his vast trading knowledge.

=====================================================

Good Morning Trader's Blog Members!

I'm very happy that Adam and Brad have given me the chance to teach you today.

Let's get to it...

Although we all employ different trading strategies across different time
frames using different vehicles (stocks, options, futures, etc), there
really are a limited number of pure trades we can take which provide clean
entries and risk-management points, and it is helpful to know the major
types of trades we are employing in our trading plan.

The four major types I propose are the following:

1. Breakout/Breakdown
2. Retracements
3. Reversals
4. Rangebound Fades

This simple chart I created helps illustrate these basic concepts:

4 Types of Trades

1. Breakout Trades

When experiencing extended range consolidation, it is best to begin
considering playing for a Breakout in hopes of a new, sustained breakout
move. Recall that other traders will be attempting to “fade” the breakout
and if price continues, they will be forced out by their stop-losses.
Stops are placed conservatively just below the breakout zone or
aggressively below the area of most recent consolidation.

2. Retracement Trades

Retracements often have the highest probability of success when properly
identified (in a trending environment). Core trading strategies can be
utilized as well as swing trading strategies which seek to capture the
“sweet spots” or a simple 'leg' of price movement (these can be the
distance from a support zone to the most recent swing-high price). Stops
are placed conservatively below the support zone or aggressively below the
most recent swing low.

3. Reversal Trades

Although Reversals have the lowest probability of success, when they truly
occur, they can produce some of the largest profits if you capture near
the true reversal zone. Realize that calling tops or bottoms is a losing
game if you do not press your edge when the trade goes in your favor
because your win ratio will be so low. It is generally not a good idea to
fade a dominant trend even if you suspect a trend change due to a
potential price climax or exhaustion. When fighting a trend, you must keep
tight stops.

4. Rangebound Trading

Finally, Rangebound or Fade-Trades occur when you have identified a
rangebound, consolidating market with clear support and resistance
boundaries to provide profit targets and close stop-loss zones (just
outside the often parallel channel lines). This tends to be profitable
until a breakout occurs, in which you could endure large losses if you
trade without stops. Realize that price expansion often follows
consolidation, as markets do not consolidate (or trend) forever.


Typically, traders find it ideal to identify one set of trades or trade
set-ups and play those whenever they recognize them, rather than trying to
interpret complex signals or varying your personal trading style on
perceptions of possible market behavior. In other words, it might be best
to identify which types of trades you are most comfortable executing given
your psychological and risk tolerance and then adhering to those
strategies instead of being tossed around by market action.

Keep in mind that these trade types are applicable to technical analysis
and short-term trading, but even fundamental analysts can benefit from
learning basic market structure, especially trend structure analysis An
ideal trade has a fundamental reason for buying which is supported by a
low-risk entry provided by basic technical analysis and the trend
structure.

In your own trading, identify which set-ups you take most often and see if
they fit into any of these above patterns. Learning where you fit in the
“Grand Game of Trading” can lift your confidence and give you that
psychological edge needed over the competition who is driven by emotion
and fails to study market structure.

::::::::::::::
Corey

*****************************

Please visit our main blog page at http://club.ino.com/trading/

Are You Trading At The Right 'Pace'?

Guest Post by Norman Hallett, CEO of Subconscious Training Corporation

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A group of 1000 traders were recently asked, "What is the single most important mental/emotional concern you have that is preventing you from being the most successful trader you can be?"

The second most frequent response was the fear of blowing out their account. (For the record the first was fear of "pulling the trigger".)

Why all this fear?

The answer is multi-fold, but one of the main causes is likely that we are overtrading or trading too much before we are ready... what I call trading at the wrong "pace".

The more you put at risk, the higher level, or "pace" you are trading at.

When you first start out as a trader, you begin by paper-trading. You put no money at risk and you practice executing your trades the way your trading plan commands that you do. / No stress, no emotions/... there's no money or ego at stake. Your (phantom) "equity" seems to rise with ease.

You're chomping at the bit to up the pace. You're ready to trade with "real" money.

You begin to trade the minimum number of contracts to effectively run your trading plan. For the first time you are now dealing with your emotions and notice that they are causing you to stray from your trading plan.

You recognize that emotions play a big part in your ability to trade successfully and you take the steps necessary to get back to trading with ice-in-the-veins confidence.

When you experience the degree of success you are looking for, you feel you are now ready to step up the pace of your trading again... to the level that you always wanted to trade at. Full speed!

Your first trade in the big-time went well. Wow!... this is great! But then it happens... an unexpected move against you. And it's a big one. You never knew your emotions could be so debilitating!

Thoughts are racing through your head and you're tempted... I mean REALLY tempted... to pull your protective stops because you want the market to rebound and get you out of trouble.

And right before you click the mouse to lift your stop, you screech to a halt. "You MUST follow your trading plan", the voice in your head insists. You comply. You're stopped out and market continues to a free-fall.

You've lost money today... a bit more than you would have liked to, but you're proud of yourself and you actually feel pretty good.

Over the next few weeks and months you think back to that day... the day you could have blown out your account... and know that the profit you see now in your account would not be there if you were not ready, MENTALLY and EMOTIONALLY to trade at a full-out pace.

Now this little story is an ideal scenario. It happens to about 2% of real-world traders.

The fact is that most traders up the pace too quickly. They make 30% in their papertrading account in a month and kick themselves for not having the guts to use real money.

"Look at all the money I've left on the table," they cry.

So they move to level 2 (not the minimum number of contract to run their trading plan). The result:

Too much emotion, too soon. Losses result.

I could go on with examples of moving up your pace too quickly and not being emotionally prepared to handle it... but I won't.

I'll just let YOU think back to what got you where you are today and let THAT be your best example.

But don't beat yourself up... just scale back... now.

Then "train your emotions" to fit your trading pace and you too... YES, YOU TOO... can be in the trading elite.

It's not rocket science. It's including the development of your mind in development of your trading plan.

My best,

Norman Hallett, CEO
Subconscious Training Corporation

Makers of TradingMind Software

---

Please visit our main TradersBlog page at http://club.ino.com/trading/

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

We beat 2000 of the biggest hedge funds in the world.

Dear Traders Blog reader,

Last week we revealed the results of our Q1 “Trade Triangle” signals. Judging by the early feedback we've received, it seems like many of our members were delighted with their returns.

Over the weekend I had some time to catch up on my reading, so I picked up a copy of BARRON’S newspaper (March 31st). I had purchased the paper two weeks ago because of an article on the commodities run-up entitled, “Guess Who's Behind The Commodities Boom.” You may have seen and read the article.

If you still have the paper you will be able to independently confirm what I am going to share with you now.

After I read the article on commodities, I started thumbing through the rest of BARRON’S and happened to run across the trading results of 2000 of the largest hedge funds in the world.

I said to myself that these hedge funds must've done extraordinarily well during the last 12 months. So for fun I started searching through their results for triple digit returns.

What shocked me was that over the last nine months, MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” results far exceeded the results of the top 2000 hedge funds in the world and not by one or two percentage points either.

The best return I could find by any hedge fund in the last 12 months was 217.33% and that was by the Balestra Capital Partners, LP. That’s a great return but we managed to do better than this top performing fund.


Okay, if 2000 of the top hedge funds couldn’t match our returns who could?

So I carried on perusing through BARRON’S looking for answers. It was there in the very same edition of BARRON’S that I ran across the results of the top 300 FUNDS of FUNDS.

Now to the FUNDS of FUNDS… I have always thought this was a dorky idea which puts another layer of fees on top of another layer of fees. The basic FUNDS OF FUNDS concept is to reduce risk through diversification (a good thing) and increase profitability. Unfortunately, when you reduce risk like the FUNDS of FUNDS you reduce profitability.

So with that in mind, I took the time and waded through the 300 FUNDS OF FUNDS data and found that the Merriwell Fund was the top performer with a 39.28% in the past 12 month period.

Good, but no cigar. MarketClub’s “Trade Triangles” were still in the poll position.

Also buried on page M54 of BARRON’S, I found the results of the top 200 Commodity Trading Advisors. Now this is more like it as these guys are smart, very smart and usually outperform the hedge funds and the FUNDS of FUNDS.

I was right! The top performing CTA was a commodity pool named AIS Futures MAAP (3x-6x) Composite with a return of 142.93%. Now this is a great performance and one of only two CTAs to crack triple digit returns in the past 12 months.


So there you have it. The best of the best in all three categories and they all came in short of MarketClub.

I was shocked, absolutely shocked as I thought everybody was doing extraordinarily well during this huge run-up in commodity prices.

MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” approach far exceeded the biggest gains of the 2000 top hedge funds. Far exceeded the gains of 300 of the biggest FUNDS of FUNDS. Lastly, it outperformed 200 of the top Commodity Trading Advisors in the world.

Now you can see why I am in shock.

See how we managed to generate signals that show a return of 243% over past nine months. I think you'll be surprised at just how simple this approach is, and how you too can become the master of your own fate and stop paying fees to advisors.

I can't promise that you’ll make 243%. In fact, I can't guarantee that you’ll make any money. Not even the best hedge fund and FUNDS of FUNDS can do that.

The bigger the risk the bigger the return. That's how it's been since the beginning of time and that equation is never going to change.

I've just finished a very short video that shows how we managed to have such great returns. The video we put together is in theater style so you can watch the whole show or watch the results of individual returns.

You can check it out today. There is no charge and there’s no registration required.

If it all makes logical sense to you, then you’ll know what to do next.

Thanks for taking the time to read this longer than normal post.

Every success in trading and in life,


Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

See if this makes sense to you.

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

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Dear trader,

In the world of trading, gold is one of those special markets that seems to defy the laws of physics.

That all changed last week.
After skyrocketing to over 1,030 dollars an ounce, goldseemed to discover gravity, and plummeted over $125 in just a few days.

So, the question is, has the bubble in gold burst?

See how we address this question, and how we trade gold, in this short video. See if it makes sense to you.

No registration is required.

Here's to your future success.

Adam Hewison
President,INO.com

Nine months later, it still makes good market sense.

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

-----

First posted on June 25th, 2007

There used to be a time when investing was simple.

You know what I mean, you buy at 10 and sell at 15 and make 50% on your money. I can understand that, and so can most investors.

I have to admit that some of these off book derivatives that banks and hedge funds are creating and trading are just not that simple to understand.

When the time comes, and it will, you will see, the you know what, hit the fan. Some of these hedge fund managers will see that a lot of stuff that looked good in computer simulations may not look or work as well in the real world (see the sub prime melt down).

Just look at what happened to this hedge fund, Amarath Advisors who lost 6 BILLION and how they thought they where smarter that the markets.

And now the Blackstone Group has gone public with great fanfare. Now that's going to be an interesting one to watch. I am going to be watching this one closely, if it drops below its initial public offering at price of $31.00 it could spell problems for the whole market. If this stock trades below 30 you are going to see a lot of press and finger pointing and speculating that we are seeing a top in the markets.

The only way to consistently be successful in the market is to learn how the market works, have a game plan and have two other key elements necessary for success.

Here they are:

* Discipline

* Diversification

Once you understand how the markets work, have a game plan, and master discipline and diversification, you are on your way to success.

Every success in the future,

Did the bubble burst?

What an incredible week!!

It seems like if you don't like the price one day in the stock market, just wait a day and the market comes back. This will not continue forever. Sooner or later the downward trend in the stock market will reverse and go higher. But for now, the trend according to our market indicators is pointed lower.

Vote in this weeks poll: Do you think that stocks have bottomed out?

In the world of commodities, a bubble was burst last week when we witnessed a dramatic drop in gold.

After trading as high of $1,030, gold hit an air pocket as all the hedge funds bolted for the exit door at the same time. This mass exodus pushed gold dramatically lower and close to the $900 level in just a few days.

Has the commodities bubble finally burst?

Yes, we believe the bubble has burst. We expect commodity prices will continue to be volatile and more on the defensive in the weeks ahead.

This may not be good news for the hedge funds, who have seen many of their profits evaporate in past few weeks. As we are coming to the end of the Q1, how many of these funds are going to show a negative or a flat return for the entire year?

However, you don't have to hold any fund raisers for hedge fund managers, as they have done pretty well over the past few years. What's happening now, is that there are just too many inexperienced hedge fund managers doing the same thing. They are all chasing too few opportunities in too few illiquid markets. Maybe they all read the same book on how to start a hedge fund.

We expect that 2008 will be remembered for its volatility, and the fact that many hedge funds closed up shop because of disappointing returns.

A few days after the end of Q1, we will be publishing our first quarter results. You may like to take a look at our Q3 and Q3ag and our Q4 results.

I think you'll agree, that we have done very well in some difficult and volatile market conditions.

Take a look at how we approach and analyze the gold market in this short video that we've just finished

Then take a look at our other educational trading videos in our "Traders Whiteboard" series.

If it all makes logical sense to you, I invite you to join thousands of other smart traders, who rely on Marketclub everyday to spot winners in the stock, futures, metals and forex markets.

Every success in the future.

Adam Hewison
President,INO.com

Be Our Guest

We welcome syndication of our content in your blog or on your trading website. Please feel free to use our content with attribution - more details here to syndicate our content

We thank you …

Special Note to All Blog Readers:

Q3 '07 Results
Q3 '07 Ag Results
Q4 '07 Results
Q1 '08 Results
(coming soon)
The "Traders Whiteboard" series
"90 Second Trading" series

It's Over… and the hedge funds will devour their young

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

-----

As we used to say in the pits of Chicago, "This is going to get ugly."

Today, we confirmed that "Ugly" has arrived.

Trade update: We exited long gold positions on the 18th at 990.2 basis spot.


Today (
the 19th) we also had a major sell signal in spot gold. Very unusual that this happend so quickly after our exit signal. Like I said "Ugly" has arrived.

Downside targets (Fibonacci Retracements) for gold are:

1. $855
2. $800
3. $750

Stand aside and give these guys a lot of room as every hedge fund and commodity fund is bolting for the exit doors in all the commodity markets, including gold.

You have read on this blog before that the markets slide faster than they glide. Just look at Bear Stearns slide and several other recent meltdowns.

With the end of the month and the quarter fast approaching these hedge funds have got to have something to show for the month and the quarter. This slide may wipe out all their profits.

It all reminds me of what Bette Davis said in her 1950 movie, "All About Eve."

"Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night"

Look for more bumpy markets and more volatility as the hedgies continue to bolt for the exit door that just got a whole lot smaller today.

Trade smart and trade to win.

Adam Hewison
President INO.com

WHICH WAY FOR THE MARKETS NOW?
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers in plain English on any market. There is no cost.

Learn how to tame volatile markets.

Dear trader,

You may not have heard about our Trade Triangle technology, but nows your opportunity to put Trade Triangles to work for you … all for free.

For a limited time only we are opening the gates and allowing non members an opportunity to enter any symbol into our Instant Trade Triangle Analysis Engine.

Here's how it works.

Enter either a name or a symbol, and VOILA! In a matter of seconds we will shoot you an email that includes a chart of your selected market, a complete unbiased analysis in plain English of that market, and finally our Trade Triangles, that pinpoint the big trends.

The reason we are offering this now, is that we believe our Trade Triangle technology can help you in today's volatile markets.

The answer to volatility is here

There's nothing else like this on the web, so give it a whirl with our compliments.

See how your trading can benefit from the Trade Triangles.

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com

About Adam

Jim Cramer bombs on Bear Stearns while MarketClub nails it! WATCH VIDEO.

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

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Take a look at what Jim Cramer said about Bear Stearns (NYSE_BSC). Bear Stearns was trading over $60 dollars a share at the time!

Boy, we love the internet. As it keeps a record of what who said what and when they said it. Cramer is a great entertainer, but he was 100% wrong on Bear Stearns and a great many other stock moves that have cost investors billions!

When you trade with a "game plan" you win. When you listen to the talking heads you lose, as they never tell you when to get out of a bad trade!

Take a look at this video that we did live on Bear Stearns and then decide who you would rather listen to, MarketClub or Cramer.

We have discussed Mr. Cramer before on this blog. You can see his track record here.

Bear Stearns, Classic Capitalism, and it doesn't matter what you think!!

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

------

This just in:
Never buy because a price looks low, and never sell because a price looks too high.




IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU THINK. Let me say that again: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU THINK.

Why would I say something like that? Why doesn't it matter what you think?

Well here's the cruel reality of the marketplace…

It doesn't matter where these markets are headed. What matters most is you get the direction right.

Just look at Bear Stearns this morning. Joe Lewis, the Bahamas based investor (smart guy) is a little less wealthy as his 9.4% shares of Bear Stearns has a loss of 1.16 billion dollars.

MARKET DIRECTION … that's whats important.

The reality is, these are trading markets. They are all driven by market sentiment.

That's the kind of markets we are in right now, and we are likely to stay in this mode for quite some time.

What matters most, is that you get the direction of the market right. You can only determine the trend by using pure market action. The easiest way to do this is by using a program that can tell you in plain English what the market is doing.

Don't let the hype, hoopla, news and the chat rooms fool you. A market can only do three things, it can go UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS, that's it!

When you hear about the next hot or cold market that is headed for the stars or the cellar, just say to yourself "it doesn't matter." That way you will know when to get in and more importantly, when to get out.

Take the next several minutes and watch our latest video on Bear Stearns and let me know what you think.

Then take a couple of minutes and watch our educational "Traders Whiteboard" series. This series is all about common sense trading and removing the number one account killer and that is emotion.

Here's to thinking "it doesn't matter" what you think, it's the direction of the market that is important.

We are going to see some amazing market and trading opportunities this year. So plan now to make some big profits. It's important to stay cool, listen to what the markets are saying and have a "game plan" that works. You can see it all here.

Let the markets have their say … all you have to do is listen.


Adam Hewison

President, INO.com

What A Deal!

For all links please visit our main TradersBlog homepage at http://club.ino.com/trading/?blognet

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J P Morgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share
Sunday March 16, 9:01 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno and Madlen Read, AP Business Writers


JPMorgan Says It Will Buy Ailing Bear Stearns for $2 a Share, or $236.2 Million NEW YORK (AP) — JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns for a bargain-basement $236.2 million — or $2 a share — a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most storied investment banks.

The last-minute buyout was aimed at averting a Bear Stearns bankruptcy and a spreading crisis of confidence in the global financial system.

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government swiftly approved the all-stock deal, showing the urgency of completing the deal before world markets opened. Early indications, though, pointed to continued fear about the stability of the U.S. market, as the dollar hit fresh record lows against the euro, gold broke through $1,015 an ounce and Asian stocks sank.

"This is going to go down in very historic terms," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist for New York-based Meridian Equity Partners. "This is about credit being overextended, and how bad it is for major financial institutions and for individuals. This is why we're probably heading into a recession."

The Fed will provide special financing to JPMorgan Chase for the deal, JPMorgan Chase said. The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets. Meanwhile, JPMorgan said it will guarantee all business — such as trading and investment banking — until Bear Stearns' shareholders approve the deal, which is expected to be completed during the second quarter.

JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Michael Cavanaugh did not say what would happen to Bear Stearns' 14,000 employees worldwide or whether the Bear Stearns name would survive. He told analysts and investors on a conference call that JPMorgan was most interested in buying Bear Stearns' prime brokerage business, which completes trades for big investors such as hedge funds.

Risky bets on securities tied to subprime mortgages — loans given to customers with poor credit history — crippled Bear Stearns, the nations' fifth-largest investment bank. So far, global banks have written down some $200 billion worth of securities slammed amid the credit crisis.

At almost the same time as the deal for control of Bear Stearns was announced, the Federal Reserve said it approved a cut in its lending rate to banks to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent and created another lending facility for big investment banks. The central bank's official meeting is on Tuesday. Before the emergency move to lower the discount rate, which is the rate at which banks lend each other money, the Fed was widely expected to again cut its headline rate by as much as a full point to 2 percent.

"Having taking Bear Stearns out of the problem category, and the strong action by the Federal Reserve, we would anticipate the market will behave quite differently on Monday than it was Thursday or Friday," JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Michael Cavanaugh told analysts during a conference call.

Some analysts expected it to be a brutal day for global stocks, nevertheless. Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index has plunged more than 3 percent in morning trading.The Nikkei 225 stock index fell 407.81 points, or 3.33 percent, to 11,833.79 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange shortly after the market opened Monday.

A collapse of Bear Stearns could have heightened anxiety in world financial markets amid a deepening credit crunch. JPMorgan's acquisition of Bear Stearns represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.

The deal marked a 93.3 percent discount to Bear Stearns' market capitalization as of Friday, and roughly a 98.8 percent discount to its book value as of Feb. 29. The company is set to report its first-quarter results after the closing bell on Monday.

Bear Stearns shares closed Friday at $30 a share. At their peak, the shares traded at $159.36.

"The past week has been an incredibly difficult time for Bear Stearns," said Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz in a statement. "This represents the best outcome for all of our constituencies based upon the current circumstances."

Wall Street analysts say the bid to rescue Bear Stearns was more than just saving one of the world's largest investments bank — it was a prop for the U.S. economy and the global financial system. An outright collapse could cause huge losses for banks, hedge funds and other investors to which Bear Stearns is connected.

The government, led by the Treasury Department and the Fed, was reported to have closely monitored the talks between JPMorgan and Bear Stearns. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, former chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., "has been in nearly continuous consultations all weekend," said Brookly McLaughlin, a Treasury Department spokeswoman.

After days of denials that it had liquidity problems, Bear was forced into a JPMorgan-led, government-backed bailout on Friday. The arrangement, the first of its kind since the 1930s, resulted in Bear getting a 28-day loan from JPMorgan with the government's guarantee that JPMorgan would not suffer any losses on the deal.

This is not the first time Bear Stearns has earned a place in Wall Street history. A decade ago, Bear Stearns refused to help bail out a hedge fund that was deemed "too big to fail." On Friday, the tables had turned, with the now-struggling investment bank in need of the same kind of aid.

Bear Stearns was founded in 1923 and in recent years was best known for its aggressive investing in mortgage-backed securities — and what was once a cash cow turned into the investment bank's undoing.

In June, two Bear-managed hedge funds worth billions of dollars collapsed. The funds were heavily invested in securities backed by subprime mortgages. Until that point, subprime mortgage-backed securities were immensely popular with investors because of their profitability.

The funds' collapse and subsequent problems in the credit markets called into question Bear Stearns' ability to manage its own risk and the leadership ability of then-Chief Executive James Cayne. Critics of the company said Cayne spent too much time away from the office last year playing golf and bridge as the problems unfolded.

Cayne is the same executive who refused to let Bear Stearns provide support as part of a Federal Reserve-led plan to rescue Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. His reticence was said to deeply anger some of his fellow Wall Street CEOs, and the episode came up every time Bear was reported to be in trouble in recent months.

Cayne took over from the legendary Alan "Ace" Greenberg in 1993. Greenberg joined Bear Stearns as a clerk, working his way up through the ranks to eventually take over as CEO in 1978. Greenberg was known for his irreverent style, and his regular memos to employees were turned into a book called "Memos from the Chairman."

Before Greenberg's ascendancy to CEO, Bear Stearns began to expand from its New York roots throughout the 1950s and 1960s, opening international offices and expanding its U.S. operations.

The company was opened in 1923 as an equity trading shop. Today, it has subsidiaries providing a wide array of financial services products for individuals, corporations, institutions and governments. Generally, it provides capital markets, wealth management and global clearing services to its customers.

AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa in Washington and Stephen Bernard contributed to this story.

378 days ago we nailed Bear Stearns

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AP
Bear Stearns Bailed Out by Fed, JPMorgan
Friday March 14, 2:10 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard and Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Teetering Bear Stearns Gets Bailout From Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase

NEW YORK (AP) — Bear Stearns Cos., one of the most venerable names on Wall Street, turned to a rival bank and the federal government for a last-minute bailout Friday to prevent it from collapsing.

The Federal Reserve responded swiftly to pleas from Bear Stearns that its coffers had "significantly deteriorated" within a 24-hour period as rumors about the bank's situation fueled the Wall Street version of a run on the bank. Central bankers tapped a rarely used Depression-era provision to provide loans, and said they were ready to provide extra resources to combat an erosion of confidence in America's biggest financial institutions.

Nearly half the value of Bear Stearns, or about $5.7 billion, was wiped out in a matter of minutes as investors felt the bailout signaled that the credit crisis has reached a more serious stage, and now threatens to undermine the broader financial system — and the U.S. economy.

"My guess is by next week, there will be rumors of other large, familiar institutions" that might be in financial trouble similar to Bear Stearns, said Anil Kashyap, a professor at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago.

Bear Stearns, the nation's fifth-largest investment bank, made its fortune dealing in opaque mortgage-backed securities — a strategy that backfired amid the worst housing slump in a quarter century. The bank has racked up $2.75 billion in write-downs since last year, and releases first-quarter results on Monday that could show more losses.

Alan Schwartz, Bear Stearns' chief executive, said the bank had enough money to keep operating at the start of the week. However, market speculation swelled Thursday — leading investors, customers and lenders to withdraw their business or rescind credit lines.

By that night, Schwartz said the bank recognized that the pace of withdrawals could outstrip the company's resources. He then contacted JPMorgan Chase & Co. — the third-largest U.S. commercial bank — for help.

JPMorgan, which has been hurt far less by the mortgage morass than other investment banks, is providing secured funding to Bear Stearns for 28 days, and those loans will in essence be insured by the Federal Reserve. Schwartz said this will buy Bear Stearns time — allowing it to "convince customers and counterparties that we have the ability to fund ourselves every day, to do business as usual."

Schwartz confirmed, as many on Wall Street suspected, that Bear Stearns could now be up for sale. He told analysts during a conference call that the short-term funding "is a bridge to a more permanent solution." Bear Stearns is working with investment bank Lazard Ltd. to explore its options.

Top executives from Bear Stearns and JPMorgan were discussing the outright sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan, according to a person familiar with the talks who was not authorized to speak on the record.

The next 28 days could provide JPMorgan with the time needed to complete due diligence on Bear Stearns before buying the company, giving detail about how much risk is on the books.

JPMorgan is considered to have one of the strongest balance sheets among Wall Street banks, and is not already involved in a rescue like Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide. In a memo sent to employees, Schwartz said the temporary financing would allow the company to "get back to business as usual."

Bear Stearns, which has about 14,000 employees worldwide, has struggled since two hedge funds under its control lost billions of dollars after investing heavily in securities backed by pools of subprime mortgages.

"They were the dominant firm for repackaging mortgages," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group LLC. "That's where all earnings came from. They had the least diversified earnings stream of all of Wall Street securities firms, and as a result, they're paying the price today."

As delinquencies and defaults swelled among subprime mortgages — given to customers with poor credit history — investors shied away from purchase securities backed by the troubled loans. Those fears expanded to encompass all but the safest bonds and securities, forcing investment banks to significantly reduce the value of their holdings and drying up liquidity throughout the market. The broader financial services sector has amassed nearly $160 billion in write-downs since the middle of last year.

JPMorgan Chase said the financing would not expose its company to any material risk, though its shares dropped 3.6 percent, or $1.37, to $36.74. Bear Stearns plummeted 39 percent, or $22.50, to $34.50. The news rattled investors around the world, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average down about 225 points and pulling other indexes lower.

AP Business Writers Madlen Read in New York and Martin Crutsinger in Washington contributed to this report.